A new year - a time for...

I guess it is time to write up something here. I find it hard to believe that it was August when I last posted. Then again, maybe that isn't so hard to believe. We've started a new year - 2009, last of the 'oughts'. Probably it will be a year of reflection (I aught to have done this, I aught not to have invaded Iraq, I aught not to have create a fiscal device which crashed markets around the world). Hopefully that kind of thinking won't weigh on consciences too heavily. What I aught to have done was write more. Gonna try and change that here - 'tis a simple habit, but a tough one to keep up. Well, some seem to have an easier time than others. Kimota94 even had to branch out to 2 and even 3 blogs. I have trouble keeping up and I'm jealous that I can' t even compare to that output. Then again, I always wished I could write like Isaac Asimov at 90 wpm on a manual typewritter. There was a mind that could make things work the first time through, on the fly.

Well, the new year brings renewal - hope, possibility and some third thing which I'm not going to tell you. Maybe later. When I get into writing as a habit. Always seems so easy during the dark cold months of the year when I'm on vacation. When I stop talking to so many different people, I guess I have more to write about. The experiment comences!

Happy New Year! Remember, the media likes to say a lot of things, but that doesn't always reflect what is going on. The stock market crashed, but it hasn't erased a large portion of the jobs. Statistics Canada's latest unemployment numbers (check out this chart) show Canada's unemployment rate at ~6.5%, lower than the 7% in 2005. This means the economic crises is no Great Depression, at least not yet. On the other hand, all the frank discussion that claims that my spending (as a consumer) is responsible for keeping everything going, seems like a pretty asinine thing to base wealth and species success off of.

Internet predictions from 1995

I remember the Internet in 1995. I was there, working, learning, building the inter-weeb. Yes, still a young pup, who learned his first Unix in 1992, I was deep in the ISP trenches in 1995. Some of these predictions are pretty amusing. But what I'm happiest about right now is that the following didn't come to pass:

Predictions:

• Within the next three years, everyone from AT& T to Sony to your cable company will offer on-line dating, electronic gambling, video on demand, and role-playing games via a set-top box. That's the Information Superhighway everyone wants!
• In five years, prices on those set-top boxes will drop dramatically as vendors learn that their services are way too expensive and that people don't like getting information from their TVs. Ever heard of VideoTex? No? My point exactly.
• In five-and-a-half years, when people still aren't buying set-top boxes, vendors will realize that it wasn't because of high prices, rather that people don't want to gamble, date, or watch videos "on demand."
• The Information Superhighway as delivered via set-top boxes will die forever; a good idea gone awry (gone the way of Betamax); unless someone figures out what people really want, such as the ability to search reference works, participate in distance learning, search the holdings at the local library, and practice electronic democracy.
• None of the set-top cable services will ever replace the Internet.

Joel Snyder
(jms@opus1.com)

Yup, if this stuff was true, I'd be out of a job! Whew!